RouteCost: A Production-Inspired Multi-Stage Framework for Pre-Order Shipping Cost Estimation in E-Commerce

Short summary

RouteCost is a multi-stage ML framework for pre-order shipping cost estimation in e-commerce, decomposing the problem into demand forecasting, baseline pricing, residual correction, and box-consolidation inference. Tested on 250,000+ orders and 260 products over 18 months, it improves predictive quality and calibration while preserving route-level interpretability. The approach addresses limitations of static lookup tables and monolithic regressors that miss operational effects like shipment consolidation.

• •Multi-stage framework decomposes shipping cost into demand forecasting, baseline pricing, residual correction, and consolidation inference
• •Validated on 250k+ orders, 260 products, 18 months of history
• •Improves calibration and interpretability over static lookups and monolithic regressors

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