We're Linear Thinkers in an Exponentially-Changing World

Short summary

Exponential progress in AI is outpacing linear intuition—hardware costs drop 30% yearly, energy efficiency improves 40%, and training breakthroughs compound capabilities at 10X rates. Software moats have eroded; experienced developers replicate complex products in days. Competitive advantage now stems from relationships, distribution, and trust—not technical capability alone.

• •AI acceleration is genuinely exponential (10X yearly), not linear—hardware, energy, and training all improving simultaneously
• •Software moats have evaporated; complex products can be replicated by experienced engineers in days for minimal cost
• •Strategic moats now depend on relationships, distribution, and trust—not code or technical capability

Generated with AI, which can make mistakes.