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Dev.to
Dev.to
6/29/2026
The original headline is: "Change failure rate is up 30% — here's how to measure yours in an afternoon"

The original headline is: "Change failure rate is up 30% — here's how to measure yours in an afternoon"

Original: Change failure rate is up 30% — here's how to measure yours in an afternoon

Short summary

Industry change failure rate rose ~30% as AI coding adoption accelerated, but most teams can't quantify their own. This guide shows how to calculate CFR in an afternoon using DORA's definition, a SQL query joining deployments and incidents, and existing CI/incident-tracking data. Novel angle: split results by AI-assisted vs. human-authored PRs to isolate where your risk is highest.

  • CFR has risen 30% industry-wide due to AI coding adoption
  • Most teams can't measure their own CFR without expensive platforms
  • Calculate yours in an afternoon using DORA formula + SQL query on existing CI/incident data
  • Split AI-assisted vs human-authored PRs to identify which adds more risk

Generated with AI, which can make mistakes.

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